Bob's Commentary
Welcome to my website. I will regularly update my commentary on the economy, the stock market and the world. Please visit often.
Photo Exhibits
- Every Second Saturday, The Art Studios, Studio 2
1727 1/2 I Street (behind Michelangelo's Restaurant) - Megami Bento-Ya Restaurant
(1010-10th Street)
Updated November 13, 2009
Magic Numbers
What's New
- Check out this Sacramento Bee article by Claudia Buck about college financing. It quotes my daughter, Sonya, and me and references the college contract shown to the right http://www.sacbee.com/business/story/2161943.html
- Bob's College Contract
- Economic and Credit Crisis Resources: I have added a collection of articles and resources about the financial crisis to the Resources Page.
Now that October has passed without a major panic, investors can focus on magic numbers. Living in a decimal-oriented society, we make a big deal out of turning 30 or 60 and celebrating the year 2000. In the late Nineties, the Dow Jones 30 Stock Index went above 10,000 for the first time. That was a big deal.
Three years later it plunged below that level when the dot-com bubble burst. The Dow rose to 13,000, then nose-dived after the "Oh, By the Way, We Need $700 Billion Dollars" day last October. It hit bottom at 6,666 in March, but has risen by 50% since then.
Third Quarter 2009/Year-to-Date 2008/Five Year Annualized Performance
- +16%/+19%/+1%Standard and Poor's 500
- +16%/+23%/+1%Domini Social Index
- +16% /+14%/+2%Dow Jones Industrial Average (reinvested dividends)
- +19%/+22%/+2%Russell 2000 (Small-Cap Stocks)
- +20%/+29%/+6%MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East Stocks)
- +4%/+6%/+5%Barclay's Capital Aggregate Bond
Though the Dow is not a particularly good proxy for the overall stock market, it is what leads business reporting in the mainstream media, so it's psychologically important. The stock market is considered to be a leading economic indicator. A rising market often foreshadows the end of a recession. Unemployment, however, at a 26-year high, is a lagging economic indicator. When the number of unemployed people begins to drop it usually means that the recession has already ended.
It's nice that the stock market is happy, but major economic threats remain. At least things are heading in the right direction for now.
About this site:
I'm a financial advisor by profession, and a writer and artist by avocation. This site was created to serve my current clients and interested individuals by providing
- fresh opinions on the state of the economy and the stock market
- easy access to recent newsletters, investment forms, and financial resources
- information about how I do business and how to prepare for an office visit
- links and resources about general financial topics, socially conscious investing, and alternative news/commentaries
- archives of my past newsletters and non-financial writing
- access to my artwork and photography