After an ambiguous start to the year, the stock market indexes have been drifting steadily, but slowly lower. There are reasons: rising interest rates, inflation fears, rising oil prices, weaker dollar, an ever-expanding federal debt. It doesn't help that the leadership of this country seems more intent on implementing the hare-brained schemes of neo-conservative think-tanks than dealing with the reality and the genuine problems that plague the economy and threaten the world.
Today, the benchmark Dow Industrial Average is hovering within seventy points of the 10,000 level, a real psychological barrier. It hasn't been that low since six months ago, shortly before the Presidential election. Despite the fact that the Dow Jones Average of 30 of the largest stocks is not a good cross-section of the domestic stock market, it is what the public thinks of as the stock market. If the Dow dips below 10,000, it will make headlines, and headlines make investors nervous. Many of my clients are particularly concerned about investing in the stock market due to their lack of faith in the judgment of those running our government.
So, should you get out of the market now or take a contrarian approach and invest more money? Which way will the stock market go this year? I hate to sound flippant, but no one knows. When economic indicators are negative, the market sometimes will inexplicably go up. When things look favorable, the market may still go down. Trying to outguess the market is usually imprudent.
I suggest that you scrutinize your risk comfort level, determine if you are really a long-term investor that can handle short-term volatility, and stay with your plan. Despite my pessimism about the leadership of this country and the sad situation they have put us in, I still believe that stock market investing should be an important part of most investor's portfolio.
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