Second Quarter Returns and What May Come Next

You may notice something strange about the numbers below. That little x sort of thing is a plus sign. It means that the stock market indexes actually went up during the second quarter of 2009. This is the first quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2007 and the best quarter for stocks since 2003.

Though the threat of a complete economic collapse is receding, there are still plenty of things to worry about: unemployment, economic growth, real estate prices, mortgage defaults, rising government deficits, and Obama's economic stimulus package that may be too small and too slow.

When trying to guess what will come next with the stock market, I focus more on attitudes than statistics. What are the "experts" saying on CNBC and what is their general demeanor. Are friends talking about the economy during social conversations? Are the local shop owners expressing concern about shrinking sales?

Though the market indexes have risen over 10% in just the last two weeks, I don't see a lot of positive economic indicators. One week I'm confident, but the next week I worry. However, I do believe that things will return to some form of normalcy within the next year or two.

It's a challenging time to be a financial advisor, so I was glad to switch to my photographer/artist role on Second Saturday. Unfortunately, the main topic among the artists was how badly their sales have fallen. So much for escape.